An in-depth analysis by someone whose most strenuous athletic activity this month was reaching for the remote
It’s the Final Four, people. Four teams. One trophy. Approximately eleven thousand hours of pregame analysis featuring retired coaches telling each other things like “the team that scores more points will have the advantage,” while we sit in our recliners nodding solemnly as if this is the Federalist Papers.
I have watched every game. (I have watched significant portions of several games while also watching YouTube videos of dogs falling off boats.) And I am here to give you the analysis you need, which is to say, the analysis you deserve.
Michigan Wolverines
Have four starters who were at other schools last year. Coach Dusty May assembled this roster in under twelve months, which is faster than I assembled my IKEA bookshelf and also the bookshelf fell apart. Have the nation’s best defense, anchored by guys who are apparently 7’3″ which I did not realize was a legal human height.
⭐ Scary. Possibly robots.
Arizona Wildcats
Top 10 on offense AND defense. Eight players scored against Purdue. This is called “balance,” which is something I personally lost the ability to maintain after my third bratwurst at the last Super Bowl party. First Final Four since 2001, which means there are Arizona fans who were not yet born the last time this happened and are now legally old enough to drink about it.
⭐ Very annoying to root against.
UConn Huskies
Third Final Four in four years. Trying to win their THIRD title since 2023. Coach Dan Hurley walks the sideline with the expression of a man who is simultaneously doing advanced calculus and smelling something bad. Their key player Cam Karaban has already won two national championships, which is two more than I have won of anything, including my fantasy league, which I have been in for eleven years.
⭐ Annoyingly good. Again.
Illinois Fighting Illini
#1 offense in the nation. Tallest team in Division I. Key freshmen from Europe including a kid named Keaton Wagler — which sounds like a character from a 1950s Western — who is a projected top-10 NBA pick. Also have a player named Stojaković, son of former NBA All-Star Peja Stojaković, because apparently basketball talent is just hereditary now, which I find personally unfair.
⭐ 21-year drought ends HERE?
UConn vs. Illinois, Saturday 6:09 PM ET. This is the game where UConn tries to do something that hasn’t been done since John Wooden was roaming the sideline in a suit that probably cost eleven dollars. Three national titles in four years. The Huskies got here by beating Duke in the Elite Eight, coming back from 19 points down, which is the kind of thing that causes sports fans to injure themselves on their own furniture. (I have personally sustained a groin pull while celebrating a regular-season basketball game. I am not proud of this. I am also not going to the doctor.)
Illinois, meanwhile, snaps a 21-year Final Four drought and arrives with the nation’s most efficient offense, which runs through freshman Keaton Wagler, who is somehow both the Big Ten Player of the Year AND a guy who looks like he could be the hero of a young adult novel called Keaton Wagler and the Stolen Clipboard. He is very good at basketball. He is also, one imagines, very tall, which helps.
My bold prediction: UConn wins because Dan Hurley will personally will it into existence through sheer managerial intensity and also because history is not ready to let Illinois have nice things yet.
📺 GAME 2
Arizona vs. Michigan, Saturday 8:49 PM ET. This is, according to Vegas, roughly a coin flip, which means it will either be extremely exciting or the coin will land on its edge and roll under a refrigerator and nobody will find it until they move out. Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg is being called the “Dominican LeBron,” which is either an enormous compliment or the kind of nickname that causes enormous pressure, but either way he dropped 27 points in the Elite Eight so apparently he is handling it fine.
Arizona brings balance and depth and a fanbase that has been waiting since 2001 for this moment, which means there are Wildcat fans who spent twenty-five years in a state of low-grade basketball agony interrupted only by the occasional Pac-12 title run that ultimately amounted to nothing. This is what sports does to us. This is why we keep coming back. (That, and because what else are we going to do on a Saturday night — talk to our families?)
📅 The Schedule (Tear Out and Tape to Fridge)
Sat. Apr 4 · 6:09 PM
#2 UConn vs. #3 Illinois
TBS · Lucas Oil Stadium · Start snacks at 5:45
Sat. Apr 4 · 8:49 PM
#1 Arizona vs. #1 Michigan
TBS · Second bag of chips authorized
Mon. Apr 6 · 8:30 PM
Championship Game
TBS · Prepare victory speech for team you picked in bracket three weeks ago
🏆 MY OFFICIAL PREDICTIONS
Based on my extensive analysis, my gut feelings, and the fact that I once correctly predicted a coin flip, here is my official expert breakdown:
Michigan over Arizona because Coach Dusty May assembled a championship roster in under a year out of pure spite for people who said it couldn’t be done, and I respect that kind of energy deeply, as I once assembled a functioning weeknight dinner in eleven minutes out of spite, and it was delicious.
UConn over Illinois because Dan Hurley has the look of a man who has not slept since 2019 and has no intention of stopping until he gets this third ring. You do not beat that man in a basketball game. You just don’t. It’s like trying to arm-wrestle a ceiling fan.
Championship: UConn over Michigan, because dynasties are built to be annoying, and UConn winning three titles in four years would be the most annoying possible outcome, and sports has a way of delivering the most annoying possible outcome with a smile. (I could be completely wrong about all of this. I was also completely wrong about my IKEA bookshelf, my fantasy team, and my belief that I could eat an entire large pizza “as a meal.” Consult a licensed expert before making any bracket decisions, or just enjoy the games, which is what I plan to do from my recliner until someone asks me to take out the trash.)
Enjoy the Final Four, America. We have earned this.